A new year traditionally brings a sense of optimism and renewal. There may be renewal aplenty this year but optimism hangs in the balance as 2024 will have people voting in several major elections throughout the world.
Countries making up over 60% of the world’s economic output and more than half of its population are due to hold elections this year. India, South Africa and Mexico head to the polls, while the U.S. presidential election takes place in November and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said there will be a general election in the second half of the year.
Sunak is the fifth Conservative Prime Minister in 14 years during which time food bank use has skyrocketed, rough sleeping has increased by more than 150%, inflation is only just slowing from double-digit highs, while public services have been decimated in the aim of preventing the country from falling into financial ruin.
The result is the Prime Minister, who in almost every speaking engagement talks in delusional tones about how the UK is some sort of utopia, can only realistically boast that the country may just about avoid going into recession this year.
The polls have the opposition, Labour, at roughly 20 points ahead and that has not shifted for a while now as Sunak’s personal ratings begin to plummet, almost to mad Liz Truss levels.
Not that it means a Labour win and Conservative collapse is a sure thing. Britain has a largely right of centre mainstream media, with many powerful figures entrenched in the class system that has kept the poorest in society in thrall to the richest for centuries.
The attacks have already started and with social media influence and disruption now a powerful tool for those seeking to sow discord, sorting through the deception and manipulation will be a relentless battle.
That will be seen in the United States also as Donald Trump, astonishingly still the favourite to secure the Republican nomination despite the litany of court cases against him, attempts to return to the White House.
An angry, despotic, hell-bent on revenge Trump will be more dangerous than his vainglorious 2016 iteration, especially if his base continues to harden and recoils into their echo chamber. The U.S. economy is in good shape, with unemployment at its lowest rate in decades. But that matters little to those who are driven by ideological fanaticism.
The effect of a Trump presidency in 2024 on global politics is frightening to consider. Vladimir Putin will certainly welcome his return to the White House, as it could prove a turning point in the Russian premier’s war on Ukraine.
Russia have their own presidential election scheduled for March with Putin set to win another six years in power due to his “overwhelming support”. The fact that he recently sent jailed opposition figure Alexey Navalny to an Arctic penal colony shows the Russian president may be feeling a little insecure despite his heavy propaganda, censorship measures and culture of fear.
Dissatisfaction with the invasion of Ukraine has not diminished and almost came to a head last year with mercenary Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin’s aborted march on Moscow. Events around the election, either counter-offensives by Ukraine or domestic demonstrations, could test the patience of Putin’s inner circle.
That makes the need for a united Europe even stronger. The continent was tested last year by elections which included far-right, anti-EU politician Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party winning in the Netherlands, while far-right populists Finns Party recorded their strongest ever showing in Finland, gaining 46 seats and forming part of the coalition government.
In Austria, the pro-Russia, anti-immigration, far-right Freedom Party (FPO) has a clear lead in opinion polls. The election is due before this parliament ends in October. The Socialist Party lead in polls in Portugal ahead of March’s snap election but far-right outfit Chega are eyeing up a Dutch-like shock.
It may feel tiring to challenge constant attempts at division and victimisation but the need for unity and cooperation has never been greater. The world is getting smaller and as we saw with the COVID-19 pandemic, consensus across political divides, benevolence and communal sharing of responsibility helped get us through. As well as highlighting the huge importance of investment in education and health services.
So, we need to fight for democracy this year – because it’s going to get ugly.
Christian Radnedge 